Paper strategies
Permanent strategy IDs. Live stats come from the dashboard feed. dashboard
BTC dog 1%
UUID 7356bdec-3409-40e7-a833-a32e8bc17298 · book dog-t2
| Market | Polymarket BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Cheap side at 10–25¢ (favorite 75–90¢) with about 2 min left. |
| Size | 1% of $1,000. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Notes | Live Stitchez and Whales BTC dog copy this book's signal. |
| Code | src/copybot/doglive.py |
| Ledger | data/dog_paper.db |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC dog 3%
UUID f0adc15d-a0b9-4a83-928a-60fbcea8055f · book dog-t2-3
| Market | Polymarket BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Same as BTC dog 1%. |
| Size | 3% of cash. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Code | src/copybot/doglive.py |
| Ledger | data/dog_paper.db |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC dog 3% $5k
UUID 779a0fd0-1534-4924-b693-4cf2b5288d78 · book dog-t2-3-5k
| Market | Polymarket BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Same as BTC dog 1%. |
| Size | 3% of cash, $5,000 start. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Code | src/copybot/doglive.py |
| Ledger | data/dog_paper.db |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC dog 3% $10k
UUID a1de8e18-3410-4c3a-9c5a-1686e69ebb67 · book dog-t2-3-10k
| Market | Polymarket BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Same as BTC dog 1%. |
| Size | 3% of cash, $10,000 start. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Code | src/copybot/doglive.py |
| Ledger | data/dog_paper.db |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC dog 4L 15% (retired)
UUID 8283d46d-1c47-45d7-b3f5-de5be56c9348 · book dog-t2-streak4
| Market | Polymarket BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | RETIRED 2026-09-28. Same as BTC dog 1%. |
| Size | 3%, then 15% after 4 losses in a row. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Notes | RETIRED 2026-09-28. No new entries; open clips still settle. |
| Code | src/copybot/doglive.py |
| Ledger | data/dog_paper.db |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC favorite 1%
UUID 3f7f691c-13ea-46be-9b34-959b6023ba73 · book fav-t2
| Market | Polymarket BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Favorite at 70–90¢ with about 2 min left. |
| Size | 1% of $1,000. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Code | src/copybot/doglive.py |
| Ledger | data/dog_paper.db |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC favorite 3%
UUID 34d5cc5a-7048-41a5-b6ef-f98b2fc0c598 · book fav-t2-3
| Market | Polymarket BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Favorite at 70–90¢ with about 2 min left. |
| Size | 3% of cash. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Code | src/copybot/doglive.py |
| Ledger | data/dog_paper.db |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC favorite 20% / 5%
UUID bd3d7822-82fb-458c-90e3-a0e3dc52b009 · book fav-lead50
| Market | Polymarket BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Favorite under 85¢ with about 2 min left, when BTC spot is $50+ past the open. |
| Size | 20% of cash at $100+ past the open, 5% at $50+. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Code | src/copybot/doglive.py |
| Ledger | data/dog_paper.db |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC dog on its side 3%
UUID 306753b1-4fa2-4a79-acc9-9b890a9f35b7 · book dog-spot-side
| Market | Polymarket BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | BTC dog entry, only when spot is still on the dog's side of the open. |
| Size | 3% of $1,000. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Code | src/copybot/doglive.py |
| Ledger | data/dog_paper.db |
| Live stats | loading… |
Gold favorite 3%
UUID b7411f0d-ca16-47a2-ab7d-3820147d455b · book gold-fav-3
| Market | Kalshi gold 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Favorite at 80–90¢ with 5 min left. |
| Size | 3% of $1,000. |
| Exits | Sell if the bid goes under 50¢; take profit at 98.5¢+. |
| Code | src/copybot/gold_fav.py |
| Ledger | data/gold_fav.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Gold favorite 20%
UUID ca69ca62-461e-4c5f-b470-66bef1ad88c6 · book gold-fav-20
| Market | Kalshi gold 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Favorite at 80–90¢ with 5 min left. |
| Size | 20% of $1,000. |
| Exits | Sell if the bid goes under 60¢; take profit at 98.5¢+. |
| Evidence at launch | Mega sweep (Kalshi KXGOLD15M second-level tape, 3,259 windows, 3 Aug–23 Sep 2026 (50 days)): fav 5m 80–90 with 60¢ stop +0.6¢ per $, 15% cap $500 $1k→$832, DD −88%. |
| Code | src/copybot/gold_fav.py |
| Ledger | data/gold_fav_20.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Gold stack 20%
UUID 80b0e93b-35f6-4278-b919-0874798ce7ac · book gold-stack-20
| Market | Kalshi gold 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Three legs: fav 80–90¢ at 5 min, heavy 95–98¢ at 4 min, 1-min momentum 60–90¢ after a dip under 40¢. Skips fav/mom 10:00–10:30 ET. |
| Size | 20% of cash per leg. |
| Exits | Fav/heavy: confirmed 60¢ stop. Mom: skip/sell at 1 min if gold z < +0.5. Take profit at 98.5¢+. |
| Evidence at launch | Mega sweep (Kalshi KXGOLD15M second-level tape, 3,259 windows, 3 Aug–23 Sep 2026 (50 days)): heavy with 60¢ stop +1.1¢ ($2,890); mom +0.1¢ ($573); fav +0.6¢ ($832). |
| Code | src/copybot/gold_stack.py |
| Ledger | data/gold_stack_20.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Gold stack mom 20 / fav 10 / heavy 10
UUID 8af5a4f0-ec19-4a2a-87ed-8648452d3086 · book gold-stack-10-20
| Market | Kalshi gold 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Same legs and skips as gold stack 20%. |
| Size | Mom 20%, fav 10%, heavy 10%; doubled after a loss until a win. |
| Exits | Same as gold stack 20%. |
| Notes | Paper mirror of older live Stitchez gold stack. Live Stitchez stack is mom 5 / fav 2.5 / heavy 2.5 and doubles after a loss. Live Korn and Whales stacks are mom 5 / fav 2.5 / heavy 2.5 with no after-loss double. Live stack still snapshots entry z; crash_z is SHADOW only (would_trigger, no sell). |
| Code | src/copybot/gold_stack.py |
| Ledger | data/gold_stack_10_20.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Gold mid 7/6m 90–95¢ 15%
UUID d9e754d1-aa0f-4fd5-a5ca-4e3377075c5e · book gold-mid-15
| Market | Kalshi gold 15m |
|---|---|
| Entry | Favorite ask 90–95¢ at 7 min left (else 6 min). |
| Size | 15% of cash, half when gold z < 1; max $500. |
| Exits | Sell if gold z < −0.5 at 5/4/3/2 min or z < +0.5 at 1 min; take profit at 98.5¢+. Live also uses a hard 70¢ catastrophe backstop. |
| Evidence at launch | Kalshi KXGOLD15M second-level tape, 3,259 windows, 3 Aug–23 Sep 2026 (50 days): 913 entries. With these exits +0.8¢ per $, second half −$1.8 flat, 15% cap $1k→$1,866, DD −64%. Held to settlement +1.7¢, $6,314. |
| Notes | Live Stitchez mid is 50% with no $500 lid and no 25% ticker clip. Live Korn mid is 20% with no $500 lid. Live Whales mid is 100% with no $500 lid and is not clipped by the shared 25% ticker cap. Whales retains its additional managed exits. Live mid keeps z-exits + 98.5¢ TP and adds a 70¢ catastrophe floor. crash_z is SHADOW only (would_trigger log, no sell, no fanout). Live shared cliff is gold_bps_5_500ms. |
| Code | src/copybot/gold_mid.py |
| Ledger | data/gold_mid_15.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Gold gap ≥5¢ 90–95¢ 15%
UUID 1b29947f-51f4-4a1c-a2a1-c296e8504e01 · book gold-gap-15
| Market | Kalshi gold 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-24 |
| Entry | Last 10 min (90–600s left), favorite ask 90–95¢, gold-implied fair Φ(z) ≥ ask + 5¢. Sits out tickers paper gold mid took. |
| Size | 15% of cash, max $500. |
| Exits | Gold mid z marks, take profit at 98.5¢+, sell if the bid is 40¢ or worse. |
| Evidence at launch | Kalshi KXGOLD15M second-level tape, 3,259 windows, 3 Aug–23 Sep 2026 (50 days): all gap entries n=635, 92.9% win with mid exits, 8/8 weeks, 15% $8,382. The 389 tickers mid did not take: +1.2¢, $1,619. |
| Code | src/copybot/gold_gap.py |
| Ledger | data/gold_gap_15.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Gold overlap 7/6m gap≥5¢ 75%
UUID ca737471-3ec7-4db0-af99-eec3accda7b6 · book gold-overlap-75
| Market | Kalshi gold 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-24 |
| Entry | Gold mid 7/6m favorite ask 90–95¢ only when Φ(z) ≥ ask + 5¢. |
| Size | 75% of cash, no cap. |
| Exits | Gold mid z marks, take profit at 98.5¢+, sell at 40¢ or worse on two 15s polls in a row. |
| Evidence at launch | Kalshi KXGOLD15M second-level tape, 3,259 windows, 3 Aug–23 Sep 2026 (50 days): causal n=122 (2.4/day), 95.9% win, 75% path $1k→$18,313 with the two-poll floor, DD −80%. A $500 cap cuts DD to about −31%. |
| Notes | Live Stitchez overlap is 25% with no $500 lid (Stitchez is not clipped by the 25% ticker cap). It does not sit out live mid. Live exits are z marks + 98.5¢ TP + hard 40¢ emergency stop. Paper stays 75% with the two-poll 40¢ floor. Whales and Korn have no live overlap book. |
| Code | src/copybot/gold_overlap.py |
| Ledger | data/gold_overlap_75.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Gold z combo 15%+15%
UUID 4c1e8a52-9d3b-4f6e-b7a0-2e5d8c9f1a63 · book gold-z-15
| Market | Kalshi gold 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-24 |
| Entry | Favorite ask 90–97¢. Leg z2: first second in the last 10 min with gold z ≥ 2.0. Leg z15: at 7 min left (else 6 min) with gold z ≥ 1.5. Each leg once per ticker; both can fire. |
| Size | 15% of cash per leg, max $500 per leg. |
| Exits | Paper: hold to settlement. Live copies take profit at 98.5¢+ and use a hard 70¢ emergency stop. |
| Evidence at launch | Mega sweep (Kalshi KXGOLD15M second-level tape, 3,259 windows, 3 Aug–23 Sep 2026 (50 days)), stacked 15% each cap $500: first half $12,771, second half $10,354, full $1k→$23,929, DD −16%, +1¢ worse fills $15,793, 8/8 weeks. z2 alone n=1023, 97.0% win, +2.8¢. z15 alone n=558, 97.7% win, +3.8¢. Sweep: scripts/gold_mega_sweep2.py. |
| Notes | Paper test of the sweep winner. Live Stitchez z is 10%+10% with no $500 cap and no 25% ticker clip. Whales is 10%+10% cap $500 plus the 25% same-ticker/same-side cap. Korn is 10%+10% cap $500 plus the 25% cap. Whales only adds a 20% entry-price stop and an 80%-of-maximum-net-profit exit with at least 2 minutes remaining, per leg. crash_z is SHADOW only (per-clip would_trigger, no sell, no fanout). 98.5¢ TP first-class; 70¢ backstop remains. Live shared cliff is gold_bps_5_500ms. |
| Code | src/copybot/gold_z.py |
| Ledger | data/gold_z_15.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC z 75% stop 75¢
UUID 9e3b7c14-52a8-4d6f-8b0e-71c4a2f5d839 · book btc-z-15
| Market | Kalshi BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-25 |
| Entry | Favorite ask 90–97¢ at 7 min left (else 6 min) with BTC z ≥ 1.5 (Binance BTCUSDT; σ = RMS of 30 one-minute returns before the open). Once per ticker. |
| Size | 75% of cash, no $500 cap. |
| Exits | Bid checked once at each later minute mark (6/5/4/3/2/1 min left); sells at the bid if 75¢ or lower. Take-profit as soon as the Kalshi live-book bid is 98.5¢ or better. Otherwise hold to settlement. |
| Evidence at launch | KXBTC15M 1-minute tape, 6,439 windows, 18 Jul–24 Sep 2026 (68 days), minute-close stop, fees in: $1k→$3,159 at day 30, $8,304 at day 60, $11,234 at day 68, 91.9% closed at a profit, max DD −32% (hold-to-settle: $11,942, DD −49%). Holdout (38 days before the 30 used to pick the rule): +1.8¢ per $, $4,210, DD −32%. Scripts: scripts/btc_z_sweep.py, scripts/btc_exit_test.py. |
| Notes | RETIRED 2026-09-25: one-leg live/paper books (stitchez-btc-z, whales-btc-z, btc-z-15) are settle-only. The same 7/6m z≥1.5 90–97 entry is BTC Z Max’s z15 leg at 15%+$500. The stop cost money on the 30 picking days ($8,308→$6,181) and the level was chosen seeing all 68 days. |
| Code | src/copybot/btc_z.py |
| Ledger | data/btc_z_15.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC Z Max
UUID c8d3a2f1-0e47-4b96-8a15-3f6c9d2e7b10 · book btc-z-max
| Market | Kalshi BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-25 |
| Entry | Favorite ask 90–97¢. Leg z2: first second in the last 10 min (90–600s left) with BTC z ≥ 2.0. Leg z15: at 7 min left (else 6 min) with BTC z ≥ 1.5. Each leg once per ticker; both can hold the same ticker. |
| Size | 15% of cash per leg, max $500 per leg, both legs sized from the same pre-entry cash. |
| Exits | Earliest of 98.5¢ Kalshi TP, BTC Max pre-cliff v1 (20% lead giveback + depth10 + Poly2, 1s fresh books, Kalshi bid ≥85¢), 75¢ Kalshi-or-Poly stop, or Union v2 first Binance strike-recross (sell only executable bids >75¢; leftover stays Max). 75¢ may supersede an unfinished pre-cliff. Receive-time ordering. Otherwise settlement. |
| Evidence at launch | KXBTC15M 1-minute tape, 6,439 windows, 18 Jul–24 Sep 2026 (68 days), minute-close stop+TP, fees in: gold-copy 15%+15% cap $500 $1k→$18,635, n=2,462 fills (1,686 unique windows, 776 dual), DD −36%. z2 1,326 (19.5/day), z15 1,136 (16.7/day). Live TP is 1s websocket (tape TP is minute-close, so live will clip more). Scripts: scripts/btc_z_combo.py. |
| Notes | Live accounts share the same Max signals and exits: Stitchez 100% per leg without a dollar cap, Whales 50% per leg without a dollar cap, Korn 25% per leg capped at $800. The former one-leg BTC-z books are retired. Tape frequency ~25 unique windows/day, ~36 fills/day; live is thinner (z15 is a 6s slot; z2 needs 1s polling). |
| Code | src/copybot/btc_z_max.py |
| Ledger | data/btc_z_max.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC Final-60 MidFav v1
UUID a7c4e1d2-9b80-4f3a-8c16-2e5d9a0b4713 · book btc-final60-midfav
| Market | Kalshi BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-28 |
| Entry | 60–30 seconds left. Current Kalshi favorite only. Best ask 60–80¢ inclusive. No z / Poly / signal-depth filter. Full 15% clip must be executable through 80¢. One entry per BTC window. |
| Size | Paper $5,000 start. 15% of current paper cash (first clip $750). Live Stitchez-only twin is 5% of Stitchez cash. |
| Exits | 98¢ TP only when the entire remaining clip has executable bid VWAP ≥98¢. Otherwise settlement. No 40¢/75¢ stop. |
| Evidence at launch | Frozen v1 from the 2026-09-25..28 three-day BTC window study. Isolated harness 3/3. |
| Notes | Paper shadow never sends orders. Live Stitchez book stitchez-btc-final60-midfav / data/kalshi_stitchez_btc_final60_midfav.json is 5% and has a signer. No Whales/Korn live copy. |
| Code | src/copybot/btc_final60_midfav.py |
| Ledger | data/btc_final60_midfav_v1.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC L2 support v1
UUID e8c2b1a0-7d46-4f28-9b61-0a4e8d3c5f17 · book btc-l2-support
| Market | Kalshi BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-27 |
| Entry | 120–600s left, current favorite ask 60–80¢, depth3_share≥70% and held best-bid size ≥2× 5s ago. First signal per window. |
| Size | Paper $5,000. 10% of cash, max $500. Buy current Kalshi ask. |
| Exits | Record +30s executable held bid. Exit +60s executable held bid. No live Max change. |
| Evidence at launch | 36 complete 700s windows (ex 00:15). n=17 +30s +5.29¢ / +60s +7.94¢ vs unfiltered 60–80 −0.79/+0.66. Holdout n=7 +3.29/+3.60. Do not go live from 36 windows. |
| Notes | Shadow paper only. Frozen as btc_l2_support_v1. |
| Code | src/copybot/btc_l2_paper.py |
| Ledger | data/btc_l2_support.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC cross-venue impulse v1
UUID f9d3c2b1-8e57-4039-ac72-1b5f9e4d6028 · book btc-crossvenue-impulse
| Market | Kalshi BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-27 |
| Entry | 120–600s left, current favorite ask 65–85¢, Binance favorable $10/5s, Poly held bid ≥ Kalshi held bid. First signal per window. |
| Size | Paper $5,000. 10% of cash, max $500. Buy current Kalshi ask. |
| Exits | Record +30s executable held bid. Exit +60s executable held bid. No live Max change. |
| Evidence at launch | 36 complete 700s windows. n=14 +30s +6.43¢ / +60s +9.34¢, 14/14 green. Holdout n=6 +6.72/+6.15. Unfiltered 65–85 was +0.53/+1.87. Do not go live from 36 windows. |
| Notes | Shadow paper only. Frozen as btc_crossvenue_impulse_v1. Stronger than pure L2 in this sample. |
| Code | src/copybot/btc_l2_paper.py |
| Ledger | data/btc_crossvenue_impulse.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC 70s
UUID d1f8e2a4-6b39-4c17-8a50-9e3f7c4b2d16 · book btc-70s
| Market | Kalshi BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-25 |
| Entry | Favorite ask 70–85¢, first second in the last 10–5 min (300–600s left) with BTC z ≥ 2.0. Once per ticker. Does not buy 90–97¢ (that is BTC Z Max). |
| Size | 15% of cash, max $500. |
| Exits | Bid checked once at each later minute mark (9 through 1 min left); sells at the bid if 60¢ or lower. No 75¢ stop. No 98.5¢ take-profit. Otherwise hold to settlement. |
| Evidence at launch | KXBTC15M 1-minute tape, 6,439 windows, 18 Jul–24 Sep 2026 (68 days), minute-close 60¢ stop, fees in: n=93 (1.4/day), 89.2% closed at a profit, +$15.16 per $100, 15%+$500 $1k→$6,186, DD −10%. Hold-to-settle was 92.5% +$14.03 $5,501 −23%. Both halves print ($3,107 / $2,442). Scripts: scripts/btc_70s_exits.py. |
| Notes | Paper only. Weekend BTC book while gold is closed. n=93 is thin — do not go live without a paper run. 75¢ stop does not apply to a 72¢ entry. Touch stops and 98.5¢ TP were worse on this rule. |
| Code | src/copybot/btc_70s.py |
| Ledger | data/btc_70s.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
BTC Dog Spring v1 (retired)
UUID 4f51c2e7-8a3d-4b90-b6f1-2d7e9c5a0b34 · book btc_dog_spring_v1
| Market | Kalshi BTC 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-26 |
| Entry | RETIRED 2026-09-28. No new entries; open clips still exit/settle. Was: paper only. First qualifying cheap-side crossing per window: 20–330s left; dog best ask crosses from >5¢ to 1–5¢; dog near-depth imbalance ≥0.85; favorite depth3 ≤90% of ~5s earlier; Poly dog bid below Kalshi dog bid. |
| Size | Walk displayed dog asks only through 5.5¢, up to $50 cost; require at least $5 executable fill. |
| Exits | Take profit only when the whole simulated position can sell at executable Kalshi bid VWAP ≥15¢. Otherwise attempt a whole-position executable bid exit after 60s; if unavailable, wait for liquidity or settlement. |
| Evidence at launch | Exploratory 2026-09-26 L2 sample: 36 complete KXBTC15M windows. Thresholds were selected in-sample; forward paper validation is required before any live consideration. |
| Notes | RETIRED 2026-09-28. Frozen v1. Do not retune in place. No signer and no live order path. |
| Code | src/copybot/btc_dog_spring.py |
| Ledger | data/btc_dog_spring_v1.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Weather YES/NO $5k paper
UUID c3a91e7b-4d2f-48a6-9e15-2b7c8d0a1f56 · book weather-spray
| Market | Polymarket daily high/low temperature |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-26 |
| Entry | His YES/NO shape, not his fills. When a T+0/T+1 city-day lists and YES asks are still ≤12¢, buy every bucket except the farthest leftover from the Open-Meteo/ECMWF station forecast. Add size on mode ±1 at ≤45¢. Fade that leftover with NO only if NO is 80–97¢. Allow-listed airports (his book minus Los Angeles). |
| Size | $5,000 book. Spray $2, overweight $8, fade $7. Max $55 per city-day. 5% paper taker fee. 24 fills per 60s tick. |
| Exits | Hold to resolution. |
| Evidence at launch | Wallet 0x496f reconstructed as early 9¢ spray + forecast overweight + leftover NO. Layer-1 ECMWF skill ex-LA 42% exact / 85% ±1. Paper follows that shape at his clip sizes, not their order stream. Skip LA (grid≠station). |
| Notes | Separate watcher scripts/weather_watch.py. Dashboard web/weather-paper.html. No CLOB orders. |
| Code | src/copybot/weather_paper.py |
| Ledger | data/weather_paper_ledger.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Silver Pullback 2m v1
UUID b5412c6a-310f-4c86-9d1a-6f0b3a2e7c11 · book silver-pullback-2m
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-28 |
| Entry | At ~2m, favorite ask 60-70c after the same side was >=75c at ~4m. |
| Size | 5% of current paper cash, $5,000 start. |
| Exits | Executable 98c TP, otherwise settlement; hold-to-settlement counterfactual retained. |
| Evidence at launch | Silver tape: n=72, 79.2% wins, avg entry 65.3c, +12.29c/contract after fee; +10.34c with +2c entry slip; 9/9 profitable weeks; all four chronological quarters positive. |
| Notes | Standalone 1 Hz paper uses the Kalshi REST full book as execution truth; no backfills. |
| Code | src/copybot/silver_shadows.py + src/copybot/silver_paper_supervisor.py |
| Ledger | data/silver_pullback_2m_v1.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Silver XAG Dislocation 7m v1 (retired)
UUID c6523d7b-4210-4d97-ae2b-7a1c4b3f8d22 · book silver-xag-dislocation-7m
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-28 |
| Entry | RETIRED. Floor-strike anchored z was an implementation/spec drift from the original window-open concept. |
| Size | Was 5% of paper cash. Do not use for sizing. |
| Exits | No new decisions. Old ledger remains for audit. |
| Evidence at launch | 59-day reproducible replay: n=154, 107 wins, 69.5%, avg ask 72.4c, -4.3c/contract. 142 floor-only trades were all YES and -5.3c EV. Launch n=62 / 88.7% does not reproduce. |
| Notes | Do not revive or use for sizing. |
| Code | src/copybot/silver_shadows.py + src/copybot/silver_paper_supervisor.py |
| Ledger | data/silver_xag_dislocation_7m_v1.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Silver XAG Window Open 7m v2 SHADOW
UUID b7c4e1a2-9d30-4f58-8c16-1a2b3c4d5e6f · book silver-xag-window-open-7m-v2
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-30 |
| Entry | At ~7m, z is computed from Bitget XAG current price versus that same window's Bitget open. |z_open|>=1; buy aligned Kalshi side only at executable REST ask 60-80c. |
| Size | 2% of current paper equity, $5,000 start. |
| Exits | Hold to settlement. |
| Evidence at launch | 59-day exact replay: n=19, 15 wins, 78.9%, avg ask 75.3c, +2.4c/contract; first half -9.0c, second half +12.6c, 4/8 positive weeks. Forward REST: n=3, 1 win, -42.3c. Research only; not validated. |
| Notes | PAPER/SHADOW ONLY. Never sends live orders. Logs z_open and z_floor side by side. |
| Code | src/copybot/silver_shadows.py + src/copybot/silver_paper_supervisor.py |
| Ledger | data/silver_xag_window_open_7m_v2.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Silver Dog Momentum 5m v1
UUID d7634e8c-5321-4ea8-bf3c-8b2d5c409e33 · book silver-dog-momentum-5m
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-28 |
| Entry | At ~5m, current dog ask 35-45c after the same side gained >=10c since ~8m. |
| Size | 5% of current paper cash, $5,000 start. |
| Exits | Executable 90c TP, otherwise settlement; hold-to-settlement counterfactual retained. |
| Evidence at launch | Silver tape: n=124, 51.6% wins, avg entry 40.2c, +9.76c/contract after fee; +7.74c with +2c slip. Higher variance. |
| Notes | Standalone 1 Hz paper uses executable Kalshi REST depth; no replay/backfill fills. |
| Code | src/copybot/silver_shadows.py + src/copybot/silver_paper_supervisor.py |
| Ledger | data/silver_dog_momentum_5m_v1.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Silver NO Mid 3m v1
UUID e8745f9d-6432-4fb9-804d-9c3e6d51af44 · book silver-no-mid-3m
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-28 |
| Entry | At ~3m, NO is favorite and NO ask is 52-58c. |
| Size | 5% of current paper cash, $5,000 start. |
| Exits | Executable 95c TP, otherwise settlement; hold-to-settlement counterfactual retained. |
| Evidence at launch | Silver tape: n=90, 66.7% wins, avg entry 54.9c, +10.05c/contract after fee; +8.06c with +2c slip; all chronological quarters positive. |
| Notes | Side-specific forward shadow; standalone 1 Hz REST execution truth. |
| Code | src/copybot/silver_shadows.py + src/copybot/silver_paper_supervisor.py |
| Ledger | data/silver_no_mid_3m_v1.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Silver Panic Flip 1m SHADOW
UUID f98560ae-7543-40ca-915e-ad4f7e62b055 · book silver-panic-flip-1m
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-28 |
| Entry | At ~1m, buy a 15-30c current dog only when that side was favorite at ~2m. |
| Size | 2% of current paper cash, $5,000 start. |
| Exits | Executable 98c TP, otherwise settlement; hold-to-settlement counterfactual retained. |
| Evidence at launch | Silver tape: n=86, 31.4% wins, avg entry 22.0c, +8.24c/contract after fee; +6.17c with +2c slip. Historical drawdown was high. |
| Notes | Experimental paper shadow. No backfill. Live Stitchez twin is retired and sends no new orders. |
| Code | src/copybot/silver_shadows.py + src/copybot/silver_paper_supervisor.py |
| Ledger | data/silver_panic_flip_1m_shadow.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Silver Pullback 3m v1
UUID a09671bf-8654-41db-a26f-be507f73c166 · book silver-pullback-3m
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-29 |
| Entry | At ~3m, favorite ask 55-70c and the same side has fallen at least 2c since ~4m while remaining favorite. |
| Size | 2% of current paper cash, $5,000 start. |
| Exits | Executable 98c TP, otherwise settlement; hold-to-settlement counterfactual retained. |
| Evidence at launch | Historical Silver tape: n=216, 69.4% wins, avg entry 62.2c, +5.60c/contract after fee; +3.64c with +2c entry slip; all four chronological quarters positive. |
| Notes | Forward shadow only. Standalone 1 Hz REST execution truth; no replay/backfill writes. |
| Code | src/copybot/silver_shadows.py + src/copybot/silver_paper_supervisor.py |
| Ledger | data/silver_pullback_3m_v1.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Silver NO Retrace 8m v1
UUID b1a782c0-9765-42ec-b370-cf618084d277 · book silver-no-retrace-8m
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-29 |
| Entry | At ~8m, NO is favorite at 60-70c and its ask has risen no more than 2c since ~9m. |
| Size | 2% of current paper cash, $5,000 start. |
| Exits | Executable 98c TP, otherwise settlement; hold-to-settlement counterfactual retained. |
| Evidence at launch | Historical Silver tape: n=194, 71.6% wins, avg entry 64.3c, +5.78c/contract after fee; all four chronological quarters positive. |
| Notes | Side-specific forward shadow. Standalone 1 Hz REST execution truth; no replay/backfill writes. |
| Code | src/copybot/silver_shadows.py + src/copybot/silver_paper_supervisor.py |
| Ledger | data/silver_no_retrace_8m_v1.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Stitchez Silver XAG Dislocation 7m 5% (retired)
UUID c8d1e4a7-2f50-4b91-8c36-7d9e0a1b2c43 · book stitchez-silver-xag-dislocation-7m
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-29 |
| Entry | RETIRED 2026-09-30. Wrong strategy. Do not revive. Was: at ~7m, |XAG z| >=1.0 from the Kalshi floor strike; buy the aligned side at 60-80c. |
| Size | Was 5% of Stitchez cash. No new orders. |
| Exits | Open clips still settle. No new entries. |
| Evidence at launch | 59-day reproducible replay: n=154, 107 wins, 69.5%, avg ask 72.4c, -4.3c/contract. 142 floor-only trades were all YES and -5.3c EV. Launch n=62 / 88.7% does not reproduce. |
| Notes | Do not revive or use for sizing. Open clips may still settle. Panic live entries are also off. |
| Code | src/copybot/kalshi_silver.py |
| Ledger | data/kalshi_stitchez_silver_xag_dislocation_7m.json |
| Live stats | loading… |
Stitchez Silver Panic Flip 1m 2% (retired)
UUID d9e2f5b8-3061-4ca2-9d47-8e0f1b2c3d54 · book stitchez-silver-panic-flip-1m
| Market | Kalshi Silver 15m |
|---|---|
| Added | 2026-09-29 |
| Entry | RETIRED. No new live entries. |
| Size | Was 2% of Stitchez cash. Do not send new orders. |
| Exits | Open clips may still take 98c or settle. No new entries. |
| Evidence at launch | Not a live strategy. Two losses and one no-fill are not a sample to fit a take-profit. |
| Notes | Live entries off. Do not revive. Ledger kept. Paper shadow silver-panic-flip-1m is a separate book. |
| Code | src/copybot/kalshi_silver.py |
| Ledger | data/kalshi_stitchez_silver_panic_flip_1m.json |
| Live stats | loading… |