30-day tape. Buying the favorite is −EV. The +EV side is fading 70–90¢ favorites (buy the dog). Size cannot create edge. dog page →
Where the edge actually is
A 93% win rate at 94¢ still loses. Edge = win rate − price. On this tape the favorite is ~1¢ rich, so the dog is ~1¢ cheap. 25% size does not fix that. The only +EV band is fading favorites priced 70–90¢.
rule
n
wr
avg px
edge
pnl / $1
in-sample Kelly
$1k @ 1%
$1k @ 3%
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Favorite price bands (buy vs fade that slice)
band
side
n
wr
avg px
edge
pnl / $1
$1k @ 1%
$1k bankroll · 25% buy-favorite (the broken size)
Oldest→newest on the saved tape. Stake 25% of current cash at the printed T−2 mid. Win pays $1/share. No slip, no fees. One path per X.
X
plays
W/L
end
return
peak
trough
max DD
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Win rate by threshold X
X
n
wins
win rate
avg price
edge
pnl / $1
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Losses at X ≥ 90%
Late reversals where the T−2 favorite was ≥90% and still lost.